Feb-2025

How to establish an effective ethanol uplift model

The question of how to establish an effective ethanol uplift model has become common in the context of gasoline blending.

Trident Consulting

Article Summary

With a majority of gasoline products containing 10% ethanol, accurately predicting the final fuel properties is essential to mitigate margin erosion. Drawing on years of experience in blending optimisation projects, Trindent has developed specific expertise in this area. Here are our expert insights.

Best practices for developing an ethanol uplift model
Each refinery has its unique configuration, influenced by the specific molecules it produces. Therefore, selecting the right independent variables is critical at the outset of model development. Understanding the principle behind the Octane Number (ON) and its relation to the chemical composition of gasoline is fundamental. Typically, a refinery may utilise seven to eight independent variables and go through approximately 10 to 15 iterations to identify an accurate and intuitive model. The model’s complexity must strike a balance; it should be sophisticated enough to provide the desired accuracy while remaining straightforward enough for easy integration into existing systems.

Optimising component distribution
Once a model is developed, the next step is optimising it. In addition to adjusting the ON of the neat blend stock – often the primary focus for most refineries – facilities can also optimise other properties and compositional requirements to maximise the overall benefit of ON uplift.

Looking beyond octane number
Although much emphasis is placed on the ethanol model’s ON, it is vital to consider other properties affected by ethanol. A robust ethanol model system should also account for key properties such as Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), distillation, and vapor-liquid (V/L) ratio. An effective ethanol model will enable a refinery to achieve a high level of repeatability for all constrained parameters, ultimately maximising benefits related to production cost management.

Conclusion
In conclusion, developing an effective ethanol uplift model is crucial for optimising gasoline blending and mitigating margin erosion. By carefully selecting the right independent variables, balancing model complexity, and considering properties beyond just the Octane Number, refineries can significantly enhance blending accuracy and efficiency.

A well-designed model ensures that refineries not only meet production specifications but also maximise cost savings and operational benefits. At Trindent, we bring years of expertise to help refineries implement these best practices, driving long-term value and improved performance in gasoline blending.

Without capital investment, we create actionable ways to sustainably increase refinery margins by 2-3%. Contact us for an initial assessment, to help solve your complex business issues.

We are here to Make It Happen™.